Overheated: How Flawed Analyses Overestimate the Costs of Climate Change

Oren Cass
A report by Oren Cass for Manhatten Institute:

ABSTRACT (link)

Prominent recent studies that forecast the cost of human-caused climate change rely on statistical analyses of the effects of temperature variation. These correlation-based, temperature-impact studies start with present-day relationships between temperatures and outcomes such as mortality or economic growth. They extrapolate from those relationships a proportionally larger response to long-term projected climate warming and assign dollar values to the very large impacts that appear to emerge. 
This paper examines a set of such studies that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Government Accountability Office have used to estimate the costs of human-caused climate change for the U.S. by the end of the 21st century. The costs include deaths from extreme heat, lost hours of work from extreme heat, and deaths from heat-caused air pollution. The paper also examines another study, published in Nature, that projects the effect of human-caused climate change on global economic production.

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Oren Cass is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. 

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